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Sunday, November 12, 2006

The Outlook

The graph below depicts the 3-month moving average changes in exports, imports, and industrial production.

Following the interst hikes of the Central Bank in June, there are signs of slowdown in consumption. The industrial production piked in July and has been gradually lost momentum ever since. If the exports remain strong, the economy may end up with a 5-6 percent growth for the second half of the year. Otherwise I expect a 3-4 % growth.

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